Financial Performance & Projections

# Financial Blueprint: Definitive Capital & Operational Analysis **Date:** January 3, 2026 **Status:** Investment Grade **Currency:** USD ($) ## 1. Investment Abstract This document outlines the strict financial architecture for The Maker's Stay, specifically tailored to the acquisition and adaptive reuse of the **Clarkesville Estate**. It includes the capitalization of the **Amphitheatre**, a key cultural asset added to the Hall phase. | **Core Metric** | **Projected Value** | **Strategic Note** | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Capitalization** | **$32,959,000** | Includes Estate Acquisition, Renovation, Amphitheatre, & Endowment. | | **Stabilized NOI (Year 2)** | **$2,100,000** | Net Operating Income post-OpEx. | | **Project-Level IRR** | **16.8%** | Internal Rate of Return (10-Year Hold). | | **Equity Multiple** | **2.61x** | Total cash returned per $1 invested. | | **Stabilized DSCR** | **1.85x** | Debt Service Coverage Ratio (Target > 1.25x). | | **Break-Even Occupancy** | **38%** | Low threshold due to Sovereign Margin. | ## 2. Sources & Uses of Funds The project is fully capitalized to "Turnkey" status. ### 2.1 Use of Funds (The Deployment) | Capital Use Category | Allocation | % of Total | | :--- | :---: | :---: | | **Phase 0: Inception** (Estate Acquisition & Machinery) | $6,500,000 | 19.7% | | **Phase 1: Activation** (Basecamp & Infrastructure) | $8,134,000 | 24.7% | | **Phase 3: Manor Restoration** (Oathsworn Hall Shell) | $5,025,000 | 15.2% | | **Phase 4: Hall Interiors & Amphitheatre** | **$5,250,000** | 16.0% | | **Phase 5: The Hexadome** (Structure, K9, Sports) | $2,050,000 | 6.2% | | **Phase 6: Legacy** (Endowment & Staff Housing) | $6,000,000 | 18.2% | | **TOTAL USES** | **$32,959,000** | **100.0%** | ### 2.2 Sources of Funds (The Stack) | Capital Source | Amount | Leverage | | :--- | :---: | :---: | | **Sponsor/Investor Equity** (First-In) | $11,535,650 | 35.0% | | **Senior Construction Debt** (Private Credit) | $21,423,350 | 65.0% | | **TOTAL SOURCES** | **$32,959,000** | **100.0%** | ## 3. Revenue Assumptions (The Engine) ### 3.1 Unit Economics (The Basecamp) * **Inventory:** 6 Luxury "Basecamp" Units + 10 Glamping/Expansion Units (Phase 4). * **ADR (Average Daily Rate):** **$750** (Blended Avg). * **Occupancy Assumption:** Year 1 (45%), Year 2 (55%), **Year 3+ (68% Stabilized)**. ### 3.2 Event Economics (Hall, Hexadome & Amphitheatre) * **Primary Volume:** 45 High-End Weddings/Retreats per year. * **Venue Fee:** **$15,000** Average per event. * **Concert Series:** 6 Ticketed "Sonic Sessions" per year in the Amphitheatre (500 pax x $75 avg ticket). ## 4. Operational Efficiency: The "Sovereign Margin" Standard hospitality operating margins hover around 30-35%. The Maker's Stay targets **50%** by internalizing high-cost line items. ### 4.1 Utility De-Coupling * **Grid Independence:** Solar/Battery Micro-grid reduces electric utility costs by **90%**. * **Water Sovereignty:** Rainwater harvesting and bio-septic systems reduce water/sewer costs by **85%**. * **Annual Savings:** ~$120,000 directly to NOI. ### 4.2 Maintenance Sovereignty * **The Atelier Advantage:** Instead of hiring expensive external contractors for repairs, our on-site Resident Artisans (paid via the Maker's Guild model) handle FF&E repairs and facility maintenance. * **Impact:** Maintenance OpEx reduced by ~40% vs. industry standard. ## 5. Pro Forma: 5-Year Operating Statement | Line Item | Year 1 (Ramp) | Year 2 (Stabilized) | Year 3 (Growth) | Year 4 | Year 5 | | :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | | **Gross Rooms Revenue** | $1,600,000 | $2,400,000 | $2,520,000 | $2,646,000 | $2,778,000 | | **Gross Event Revenue** | $900,000 | $1,350,000 | $1,417,500 | $1,488,375 | $1,562,000 | | **F&B / Ancillary** | $300,000 | $450,000 | $612,500 | $715,625 | $750,000 | | **TOTAL GROSS REVENUE** | **$2,800,000** | **$4,200,000** | **$4,550,000** | **$4,850,000** | **$5,090,000** | | | | | | | | | *Less: Staffing & Labor* | ($800,000) | ($1,200,000) | ($1,260,000) | ($1,323,000) | ($1,389,000) | | *Less: COGS (F&B/Retail)* | ($350,000) | ($550,000) | ($600,000) | ($650,000) | ($680,000) | | *Less: Utilities & Maint.* | ($125,000) | ($150,000) | ($160,000) | ($175,000) | ($185,000) | | *Less: Marketing/Admin* | ($125,000) | ($200,000) | ($230,000) | ($252,000) | ($265,000) | | **TOTAL OPEX** | **($1,400,000)** | **($2,100,000)** | **($2,250,000)** | **($2,400,000)** | **($2,519,000)** | | | | | | | | | **NET OPERATING INCOME** | **$1,400,000** | **$2,100,000** | **$2,300,000** | **$2,450,000** | **$2,571,000** | | **NOI Margin** | **50.0%** | **50.0%** | **50.5%** | **50.5%** | **50.5%** | ## 6. Sensitivity Analysis Stress-testing the model against both market downturns and "Blue Sky" performance. | Scenario | Occupancy | ADR (Avg) | NOI Impact | Valuation (6.5% Cap) | | :--- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | | **Upside (Optimization)** | **72%** | **$850** | **$2,650,000** | **$40,700,000** | | **Base Case (Target)** | **68%** | **$750** | **$2,100,000** | **$32,300,000** | | Moderate Recession | 55% | $650 | $1,450,000 | $22,300,000 | | Break-Even (Solvency) | 38% | $600 | $1,130,000 | $17,300,000 | ## 7. Exit & Liquidity Strategy 1. **Primary Exit (Year 5-7):** Refinance into **Permanent Non-Recourse CMBS Debt** based on a stabilized valuation of **$32M+**. 2. **Secondary Exit:** Sale to a luxury hospitality brand (e.g., Auberge, Six Senses). ## 8. Impact Economics The Maker's Stay is designed to be a net-positive economic engine for the region. ### 8.1 Living Wage Guarantee * **The Standard:** We commit to a starting wage **25% above the regional living wage index**. ### 8.2 The Maker's Dividend * **The Mechanism:** **10% of Net Operating Income (NOI)** is contractually allocated to the Non-Profit Community Land Trust (CLT). ### 8.3 Hyper-Local Procurement * **The Mandate:** We target **80% of operational expenditures (OpEx)** to be spent within a 50-mile radius.